Market Trends: Seven Crucial Factors for Portfolio Protection
In the market, who knows what’s happening? Stop losses are getting hit, portfolios are going down. In such a situation, there are seven important factors that you should pay Awareness to. Today, I am going to tell you a strange story. Our friend said, “Brother, hdfcfund.com.” He said, “Oh, you are making a big mistake. Entertainment is a waste of time. If you had picked up shares of Jio after leaving TV, where would you be today?” The brother’s number is not even in existence, and if you open media, they share 150 charts every other day. Out of those, 110 are currently down, but those 40 shares that are accidentally up are being retweeted. In such a situation, it’s natural that many of you are confused. So, quickly, I’ll tell you the seven parameters, seven things that will be most important in the coming times.
Factors 1 : AN Options Player ( VIX will Increase)
Firstly, an indication has started coming that volatility will increase. Why will it increase? Decision are approaching, the budget is approaching, and due to some other reasons, there is an atmosphere of fear. For example, recently it was said, “Why will FII xit? Because somewhere they have been asked to give clear disclosure. Otherwise, by June, Tata, Birla, and how many crores of rupees will go, and the second thing is the budget that is coming. So the first thing you need to understand is that AN options player, VIX will increase, so you have to be prepared for moves on both sides.
Factors 2 : Sectors
So the first thing is VIX, the second thing you need to pay Focus to is that brother, the sectors that are there, they never run only one sector for a lifetime. Sectors always move with cyclicality, and my experience is that in the coming months, if we talk about PSU railway stocks, talking about the railway sector, associated sectors have performed much better. I’m not saying you can’t go from here, but it’s quite overbought. So if you talk about a longer duration, I think there will be profit booking here. Now, it’s a natural thing.
A big person doesn’t think of sitting in cash after booking profits. They either invest in another economy like China, Japan, or other emerging nations, or they reinvest in our own country but in cyclically different sectors. According to my experience, in the next two to three years, money could revolve sectors like Power, Fertilizers, Renewable Resources, Mining, and Commodities. Apart from these, there will be other sectors like Insurance and others that may play out as well.
Because if you look at specific sectoral charts, there is a breakout showing up, and momentum is visible somewhere. Despite heavy selling by FIIs, there are some core sectors that will show a dispatching point on the screen.
Decision dynamics will be the most important, and the victory factor won’t play such a crucial Duty anymore. The market is estimating based on the last exit polls after the state Decision, and recently, the ongoing scenario suggests that the highest probability is coming into the Power and Renewable sectors. What will be important this time is not who is winning, but what economic dynamics are saying. You have seen everything on the screen from 1991 to 2019; tell me your expectations in the comments—where the market could go by the end of 2024.
Factors 3 : Upcoming Results.
Now, let’s move on to the upcoming results. The quarterly results are not very encouraging; not many blockbuster results are expected. Okay, some results are coming, but they might be a bit disappointing. Talk to some IT tech guys, it’s decent, but there has been a long downturn there too. So, after the next point, let’s talk about results from the private sector banks. There is a downturn going on there too, so that is an exception point. Negative Duty play is expected from stock-specific actions. You have seen during 2014, 2018, 2008-09; you have regularly observed that during the bull run, unexpectedly, stock prices fall heavily on some specific news or events. For example, the merger news of Sun Pharma and Z, you have seen how Z broke down. Even though it has recovered, you saw a single big fall in a day. Promoters said that no one is listening to us, regulators are not listening to us; things like tax evasion, PolyCap, and ITC. You have seen a significant fall in one day; tell me if you expect this chart to return and analyze it again by placing it below. That is going to help you out, and if you like these kinds of charts, please like the article.
Factors 4 : Quarter Results
After the next point, let’s talk about the results that are coming, the quarter results are not very interesting, not many blockbuster results are coming. Okay, some results are coming, but they might be a bit disappointing. Okay, some heavyweight results are coming, and there may be a bit of disappointment. So, don’t be afraid to book some profits here and there because if your exposure is 5-10% of the total portfolio, then it’s okay; otherwise, avoid a little bit.
Factors 5 : Financials Volatility
Next point is that the financial sector will remain the most volatile look at the Fin Nifty, look at the Bank Nifty, as much as the expiry is approaching, the volatility is intensifying. If the financials are volatile, it means something big is happening. Financials will play a significant Duty somewhere, even if it means they will handle themselves, because there are diversified things in them. Financials will play a very big Duty somewhere. So, if you are not a high-risk taker, be cautious with financials because you can go anywhere at any time.
Factors 6 : Let’s Take Advantage of short-term Capital Gains
And finally, the sector and stocks that have performed the least in the last three months, remove them in the last three days. In this least amount of time in the last three months, there are the highest chances of profit booking. This is because no one will book profits unless they have made a substantial profit. Think with an institutional mindset, where they would have made significant profits. They are not going to book at the same level where the already moved averages are only at 34. So, they will hold onto that, but where they have got a move at 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, obviously, they will think, ‘Let’s take advantage of short-term capital gains, we have no problem.’ So, tell me which stocks are these in the comments.
Factors 7 : Suggestion Abhishekar sir
Now, our normal brothers and sisters will say, ‘What should we do in such times? Some things are showing value in the market, but there is also fear of a market crash.’ I am giving a simple idea. Make the next two years, this year and the next, until the end, meaning until 2025, consider this 24-month period as a horizon. Do your own calculations for SIP. I’m not talking about SIP in blue-chip stocks or blue-chip funds, which have grossly underperformed. But I have seen one thing, if the market crashes after a lot of overinflation, then the penny stocks, small-cap stocks, or mid-cap stocks recover from there, and if they are good, they take four to five years to recover.
If they are useless, they never recover in 8, 10, 12 years, they keep falling and consolidating at one place. Sometimes they even get delisted. But blue-chip stocks somehow make their base and go up. So, my suggestion will be for the next 24 months, make this period your horizon. Divide the amount you think of investing among your favorite blue-chip stocks, and there you invest. That is going to help you out. I hope this view was clear to you. If you liked it, don’t forget to like and share. Keep learning, keep growing, keep investing, and keep doing.”